Last month, I wrote in this section that Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia based in southern Lebanon, were moving toward an all-out war after nearly a year of relatively contained fighting along the Israel-Lebanon border. Unfortunately, they have gotten only closer. Last week, a series of Israeli operations against Hezbollah has underscored just how quickly the situation can spiral out of control.
As the Israeli military was tied up in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was largely content with letting the less-intense war in the north play out below a certain threshold. Netanyahu, who despite his penchant for tough talk is a fairly risk-averse politician, didn’t believe it was wise to fight two resource-intensive conflicts simultaneously. Others in his coalition government didn’t have the same opinion; one of the most extreme ministers in his cabinet, Itamar Ben-Gvir, publicly talked about invading Lebanon as far back as May.
The events of last week, however, have turned those assumptions to dust. On Sept. 17 and 18, explosives planted in thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah detonated simultaneously in one of the most elaborate operations conducted by Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency in recent memory. The attacks killed at least 39 people and injured thousands more. Shortly thereafter, an Israeli airstrike struck a building in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where commanders of Hezbollah’s elite commando force were meeting. One of the fatalities was Ibrahim Aqil, a high-ranking Hezbollah commander who was wanted by the FBI for his involvement in the 1983 terrorist attacks against the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks in Lebanon.
The fighting escalated further over the weekend. Southern Lebanon is now a de facto war zone. On Sunday, the Israeli military claimed it had hit 400 militant sites. Another 800 targets were struck Monday, with Lebanese health officials reporting that more than 270 people have been killed in the strikes. Civilians are being told by the Israeli military to evacuate their homes, an order that will swell Beirut’s population and strain the country’s already-struggling health infrastructure.
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