With Iran reportedly affirming its desire to return to the negotiating table on its nuclear capabilities, the United States has a rare opportunity. There is a confluence of American and Iranian interests to navigate the nuclear weaponisation issue through a deal, hastened by Israel’s divergent ambition to resolve it by military means. As in the 12-day War, the United States is likely to become entangled in such an outcome; but the United States is in the driver’s seat, and there are ample opportunities for securing American interests without a costly war.
Since the 12-day War’s conclusion, time has taken on different significance. Before the war, Iran retained a nuclear threshold option; it had uranium enriched up to 60 per cent, with 90 per cent required for weaponisation. This gave Iran a deterrent to discourage an American or Israeli attack. If attacked, it could develop a nuclear weapon in weeks. Now, Iran no longer has the “race to the bomb” option. With its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpiles destroyed by American bombers, there is not an imminent threat of Iran tipping over from threshold status into a nuclear power. But now the clock is ticking from a different direction—Israel.
Israel has been systematic in dismantling Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” proxy network since October 7, 2023. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran’s patchwork of groups in Syria have been severely degraded in the ensuing two years, opening the path for Israel to deliver a knockout blow against Iran. But Washington’s aim was to neutralise Iran’s nuclear program, while Tel Aviv had the more audacious aim of regime change. These objectives have not changed. From Israel’s perspective, a nuclear deal negotiated by President Trump is not just undesirable, but perilous. President Trump is the only figure with the political capital to negotiate with Iran without the deal being ripped up later. A nuclear deal therefore threatens Israel’s maximalist aims. If a deal looks imminent, the Israelis will likely attempt to play a spoiler role. The United States should call their bluff.
Author
Events on Iran
