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Home / Venezuela / Attacking Venezuela would be a giant mistake
Venezuela, Western Hemisphere

December 2, 2025

Attacking Venezuela would be a giant mistake

By Gil Barndollar

Key Points and Summary – The “Ledeen Doctrine”—the neoconservative idea that the U.S. must periodically crush a small nation to demonstrate power—appears to be guiding a new potential conflict with Venezuela.

The Buildup: The USS Gerald R. Ford and a massive naval task force have arrived in the Caribbean, signaling the most significant buildup since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The Target: Unlike past interventions, Venezuela is a substantial adversary with state militias, 31 million people, and a regime that retains key loyalty, making a “smooth transition” unlikely.

The Risk: An attack risks triggering a massive refugee crisis, empowering China in the region, and destroying what remains of U.S. soft power in Latin America.

Read at National Security Journal

Author

Photo of Gil Barndollar

Gil
Barndollar

Non-Resident Fellow

Defense Priorities

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