The Israel and U.S. war on Iran increasingly appears frozen in a cycle of media leaks and intermittent strikes, oscillating between an ever-near agreement and perpetual war. Yet until a deal is publicly approved, it is wise to read such reports with caution. Indeed, current back-and-forth talks are better viewed through the corresponding actions occurring alongside them, with recent tit-for-tat strikes and fighting in Lebanon suggesting a low-tempo war may be the near- to medium-term scenario at play as distrust prevents a deal.
The latest round in this cycle is currently playing out, with U.S. officials insisting that a framework for an interim agreement is all but signed. Of course, Iranian officials quickly disagreed, arguing that no agreement had been reached. This cycle, which started well before those recent reports, continues today.
Tellingly, U.S. officials have not spoken the same language about any pending deal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent contradicted leaks from U.S. officials, referencing the nuclear components of any potential deal as details emerged that Iran’s nuclear program would be discussed after an interim agreement. Vice President JD Vance, viewed as unsupportive of the decision to go to war, similarly obfuscated on any such deal. President Donald Trump has repeatedly contradicted several details of the potential framework, reportedly demanding major last-second amendments.
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