“It’s a slippery slope,” says Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis for the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities. “The appeal of automating things and having humans out of the loop is extremely high. The lack of transparency between the two sides of any conflict creates additional concerns.”
At the same time, if the ability to wage war remotely and autonomously leads to minimal human toll, that in itself may increase risk tolerance, meaning more operations that have higher escalation potential. For instance, it would be a gutsy move for a conventional U.S. Navy vessel to attempt to break any Chinese blockade of self-ruling Taiwan. Sending an unmanned submersible, however, feels less confrontational—as would a People’s Liberation Army decision to sink it. Yet those ostensibly lower-risk scenarios may in fact accelerate an escalatory spiral toward full-blown conflict. If a nation can wage war without the political cost of bringing home flag-draped coffins, will it be more likely to engage in unnecessary conflicts? “The human cost of war sometimes keeps us out of war,” says Kavanagh of Defense Priorities.
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