April 30, 2026
Lessons in Military Deterrence from the Iran War: U.S. Strategy in Contested Waters
While the ultimate outcome of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran remains uncertain, its implications for U.S. military strategy already warrant close scrutiny. The United States’ lack of operational success against Iran raises critical questions about U.S. deterrence strategy—particularly vis a vis China in the case of a Taiwan contingency—and the broader limitations of American military might in an era of contested naval supremacy and power projection.
Is the United States capable of prolonged military engagement in the Middle East while maintaining a deterrent force posture in East Asia? How should the United States respond strategically in the Indo-Pacific to Iran’s tactical successes with drones and missiles? What does the Iran War demonstrate about the value of forward U.S. operating bases in the case of a Taiwan contingency?
To discuss these questions and more, join a Quincy Institute conversation featuring Brandon Carr, studies associate at the Quincy Institute, Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow & director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities, and Kelly Grieco, senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center. Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, editor-in-chief of Responsible Statecraft, will moderate.
The conversation will take place on Thursday, May 14th from 12:00–1:00 PM ET.
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