“Compared to the number of ships that transited before the blockade—something like six or seven ships per day—the volume is clearly down,” said Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank.
“But the bigger problem for the U.S. is that there’s no way to make a blockade of a continental country airtight—Iran can still conduct significant trade overland, including in oil, albeit at lesser amounts than by sea,” she said.
“Even if the blockade severs all oil trade—it won’t—the maximum damage might be a 10 percent GDP loss,” said Kelanic. “That’s a big loss for peacetime conditions—but not so bad considering Iran is at war.”
In comparison, Ukraine has lost 20 percent of its GDP after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, she said. That has not stopped Ukrainian forces from fighting Russia to a near stalemate.
“So, I’m skeptical that the costs imposed by Trump’s blockade will break Iran’s resolve to continue resisting U.S. demands,” said Kelanic.
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