“It’s already tricky where you have U.S.-backed forces killing U.S.-backed forces,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis for Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank.
The risk of Lebanon’s army entering the fray is low, Ms. Kavanagh said. The army has long maintained a position of neutrality that has given it legitimacy with international players like the United States, which it would quickly lose if it joined the fight, she said.
“It would be difficult for the U.S. to fund the Lebanese Armed Forces if they fight Israel,” she said.
And Lebanon’s army adopted its neutral position in part because it is “extremely weak” economically and otherwise, Ms. Kavanagh said. Lebanon has been in a severe economic crisis since 2019, leaving the army scrambling to recruit, pay salaries, train and get equipment, and it is no match for either Israel or Hezbollah, she said.
But she said the view that Israel’s war against Hezbollah could prove advantageous for Lebanon in the long term is held mostly by those outside the country. The Lebanese army does want to be stronger, she said, but Israel “just taking out Hezbollah positions isn’t going to get it there.”
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