A security guarantee would further enmesh Washington in multiple violent Mideast confrontations and conflicts. Rather than enable Washington to reduce its role in the region, “the pact’s main achievement will be to further entangle the United States in a region that successive U.S. presidents have tried to pivot away from,” write Frederick Wehrey and Jennifer Kavanagh, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Defense Priorities, respectively. Confident in military immunity courtesy the U.S., Riyadh could become more aggressive against its neighbors. At the same time, the KSA would likely demand ever more evidence of Washington’s commitment. A ballooning American troop presence could spur terrorism. U.S. forces on holy Islamic soil triggered the 1995 bombing of the Khobar Towers compound and animated Osama bin Laden’s attacks elsewhere.
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