Survey: China-Taiwan Intro/framing text (if needed). (1) How would you assess the likelihood of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan in the next five years?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely (2) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan, how would you assess the likelihood that it would preemptively strike U.S. targets at the outset, such as U.S. airbases in Japan or assets in Guam?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely (3) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how do you assess the likelihood that the United States would not intervene militarily in any form?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely (4) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how do you assess the likelihood that the United States would offer military assistance but not send troops, as it has done in Ukraine?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely (5) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how do you assess the likelihood that the United States would intervene militarily to support Taiwan directly?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely (6) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States intervenes militarily, how would you assess the political pressure an American president would face to send U.S. forces to defend the island?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low (7) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States intervenes militarily, how would you assess the political pressure an American president would face to keep troops out of war with China?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low (8) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States intervenes militarily to support Taiwan directly, how do you assess the likelihood that U.S. regional allies will contribute troops to fight alongside the U.S. forces?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely (8a) Please specify which allies you think are very or somewhat likely to contribute troops. (9) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how do you think the U.S. should respond?* Intervene militarily to support Taiwan directly Offer military assistance but keep U.S. forces out of the conflict Remain uninvolved (10) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States intervenes militarily, how do you assess the likelihood that China will achieve its objective of seizing Taiwan?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely (11) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States intervenes militarily, what is your best estimate of the associated military costs in USD, including expenses like damaged or destroyed military hardware, expended missiles, fuel and other operating costs?* Billions Hundreds of billions Trillions Tens of trillions More than 100 trillion (12) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States intervenes militarily, what is your best estimate of the total U.S. military fatalities* Thousands Tens of thousands Hundreds of thousands More than 1 million (13) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States intervenes militarily, how would you assess the likelihood that tactical nuclear weapons might be used?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very likely (14) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States intervenes militarily, how would you assess the likelihood that strategic nuclear weapons might be used?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very likely (15) How would you assess the extent of military benefits China would gain were it to seize Taiwan?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low (16) How would you assess the economic benefits China would gain were it to seize Taiwan?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low (17) How would you assess the importance of maintaining the cross-Strait status quo to U.S. military power in Asia?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low (18) How would you assess the importance of maintaining the cross-Strait status quo to U.S. economic growth?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low (19) If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan, the United States does nothing, and China succeeds in seizing the island, how would you assess the likelihood that U.S. allies move away from the United States and bandwagon with China?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low (20) If China decides to launch a military invasion of Taiwan, the United States does nothing, and China succeeds in seizing the island, how would you assess the likelihood that U.S. allies lean toward and balance with the United States?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low (21) The most important reason the United States should use military force to prevent China from seizing Taiwan is:* To protect U.S. military advantages in Asia To protect U.S. access to semiconductors manufactured by TSMC To protect U.S. credibility with allies To defend a democracy against an autocratic aggressor The United States should not use military force (22) The most important reason the United States should not use military force to prevent China from seizing Taiwan is:* High military costs Risk of military casualties High economic costs (e.g., lost trade) Risk of war with China Low U.S. interests at stake The United States should use military force
