Russian President Vladimir Putin has stopped short of rejecting the U.S.-proposed unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but neither has he accepted it. “The idea itself is correct […] but there are issues to discuss,” he said yesterday.
Putin’s rhetorical sidestep is an unsurprising but nonetheless important reminder that achieving a lasting peace in Ukraine will not be easy. U.S. President Donald Trump still hopes for a quick settlement, telling reporters yesterday that “we have to get [the war] over with fast”. The sentiment is admirable, but Trump and his advisors should not let their ambition for a deal—or their desire for speed—come before American interests, even if this means walking away.
While Trump’s Oval Office blow-up with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made clear the divergence between U.S. and Ukrainian interests, Putin’s refusal to immediately accept the 30-day ceasefire shows that America and Russia do not share a common interest either. Winning on the battlefield as Ukraine barely hangs on, Putin has no incentive to agree to a ceasefire right now, especially a temporary one that would allow Ukraine to rest and regroup. It’s true that Russia’s army would also benefit from a pause in fighting, but Ukraine is considerably more desperate. Putin’s best move is to press on Kyiv’s weaknesses, maximising his leverage before negotiating.
Trump might try to force Putin to the bargaining table, either by imposing sanctions—as he threatened in January—or stepping up military aid to Ukraine. Yet he’s likely to find this approach much less successful with Russia than it was with Ukraine. Putin has already survived three years of punishing economic and financial sanctions, and is not dependent on the United States to keep his war machine running.
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