In a long-awaited speech delivered on March 4, French President Emmanuel Macron outlined a vision for adapting France’s nuclear policy to Europe’s rapidly changing security environment. Among other innovations, Macron introduced the concept of “forward deterrence,” designed to encompass “the depth of the European continent.” He announced that France would expand its nuclear arsenal, modernize its nuclear assets, and increase the opacity of its nuclear program.
Although the emergence of an independent European nuclear deterrent remains a distant prospect, Washington should support France’s initiative to help its allies work toward this meaningful burden-shifting goal.
Discussions about a regional deterrent arise from Russia’s war in Ukraine and repeated nuclear threats. However, they also reflect concerns about the Trump administration’s ambiguity (and occasional hostility) toward NATO, its desire to shift focus to the Western Hemisphere, the Indo-Pacific, and now the Middle East, and the risk that domestic U.S. tensions could become overwhelming. Europeans fear that an official American disengagement or an accumulation of “ambiguit[ies], delays, and mixed signals” could create a “deterrence gap,” thereby inviting an adversary to engage in dangerous provocations to test Europe’s capabilities and resolve.
France’s “forward deterrence” falls short of the nuclear guarantee that the United States has offered to its NATO allies since the Cold War. Additionally, Paris will retain full control over its nuclear planning, targeting, and use.
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