On July 14, President Donald Trump announced that Russia and any country purchasing Russian oil would be hit with severe tariffs in 50 days if Moscow failed to sign a cease-fire with Ukraine. Two weeks later, during a trip to Scotland, he shortened the timeline to 10 days, arguing that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cooperation was virtually absent. Despite Trump’s claim that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s fifth meeting with Putin was “highly productive,” the deadline will hit on Friday.
Much of the commentary to date has focused on Trump’s U-Turn on the war in Ukraine—understandably so. Unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, Trump had no love for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who he called a “dictator” and falsely blamed for instigating the Russian war. And unlike Biden, Trump was more willing to tighten the screws on Zelensky, who often demanded terms—like Russia’s full withdrawal from Ukraine, including Crimea—that were not tethered to facts on the ground. His highly-publicized dressing down in the Oval Office this past February, in addition to Washington’s temporary suspension of military and intelligence assistance to Kyiv, may have helped scare Zelensky into watering down his position and agreeing to peace talks without preconditions.\
Now Putin is the one on the hot-seat. The Trump Administration’s attempt to negotiate a 30-day ceasefire in March went nowhere, as did an effort to strike a similar accord in the Black Sea weeks later. The Russians have dropped substantially more ordinance on Ukraine during Trump’s first six months than they did during the last six months of Biden’s term, and Trump has grown increasingly critical of Moscow. His tariff threat, alongside his decision to allow Washington’s NATO allies to purchase U.S. arms for Ukraine’s benefit, is as much a sign of extreme frustration with Putin’s antics as it is about injecting life into moribund talks.
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Events on Ukraine-Russia
