Recent fighting in Syria’s second city, Aleppo, marks the latest in a string of escalations between the central government in Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Yet, the hostilities represent more than another instance of disagreement; rather, they represent a step up the escalatory ladder, potentially designed to test the limits of aggressive action against the SDF. That dynamic is likely driven by Turkey, at the expense of U.S. interests in post-Assad Syria, potentially spelling disaster.
What exactly ignited the exchange in northern Aleppo City’s two majority-Kurdish neighborhoods of Ashrafiya and Sheikh Maqsood on January 6 remains unclear, with both sides blaming each other for indiscriminate and unprovoked attacks on their positions. The fighting began after the last round of unification talks failed to produce a solution, with reports suggesting the central government pulled out of the talks just ahead of the fighting in Aleppo. Initially, the incidents largely reflected earlier exchanges, with the expected outcome constituting another brief round of small-scale attacks between the actors. However, the fighting did not cease; rather, it intensified over the following days.
Those hostilities proved quite destructive, with heavy weapons and small arms exchanges hitting densely populated neighborhoods housing an estimated 200,000–500,000 people. As a result, at least 24 civilians were killed, with an estimated hundreds more injured. According to the latest reporting from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), well over 100,000 people remain displaced due to the fighting, with many fleeing to the Kurdish-majority Afrin District to the northwest or to SDF territory in northeast Syria, across the Euphrates River. There are numerous accusations of atrocities committed by both sides during the fighting.
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