Trump’s secret plan for Russia and Ukraine has one enormous flaw

After the failed Alaska summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in August, the general prognosis was that U.S. efforts to bring peace to Ukraine had stalled. The assessments grew even darker in late October, when the White House sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies, tired of the Kremlin’s refusal to agree to an immediate ceasefire. In the 11 months since he returned to office, commentators have oscillated between accusing the U.S. president of capitulating to Putin’s demands and praising him for bringing new pressure to bear on the Kremlin.

Now, according to various reports, the Trump administration has drafted the rough outline for a possible peace agreement. Russia appears cautiously optimistic, so once again, criticism is mounting of the U.S. president’s supposed willingness to sell out Kyiv in order to force an end to the conflict. But the bigger question is whether the proposals will survive contact with reality. There are good reasons to be sceptical.

As reported, the latest U.S. draft has a number of elements that will serve as the basis for further discussions. The Ukrainian army would be expected to withdraw from the entirety of the Donbas region, including the areas the Russians haven’t been able to capture, with the region then potentially leased to Moscow. The Ukrainian army’s size and capacity would be cut, and the long-range weapons that Kyiv has been using against Russian energy targets would no longer be available. In addition, U.S. military aid to Kyiv would be rolled back and the Ukrainian government would be expected to recognise Russian as an official language.

Concessions would be expected of the Russians as well, although the list is shorter. The Trump plan appears to compel Russian troops to hand back some of the territory they’ve captured in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. And Ukraine could be offered some sort of U.S. defence guarantee in exchange for compromising on its own military capabilities. The reason behind such a guarantee is straightforward: mollify Ukrainian objections to other parts of the plan and deter Russia from resuming the war at a time of their choosing.