On Saturday, President Donald Trump tossed a big, loud threat Iran’s way: If Iran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours, the United States will start bombing its nuclear power plants. But on Monday morning, as the deadline neared, Trump reversed course. The U.S. strikes, he wrote, are now off for a five-day period because U.S. and Iranian officials were engaged in “very good and productive conversations” toward ending the weekslong war.
Of course, with Trump, we can’t be sure what he’s saying is actually the truth. Even as he asserted that there were multiple points of agreement with Tehran, including some form of joint management over the Strait of Hormuz (whatever that means), Iranian officials released their own statements dismissing the notion that talks with Washington were occurring. Meanwhile, Israel was continuing to strike targets across Iran, which suggests that even if the Trump administration could hash out an agreement with Tehran, Trump will have to drag Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kicking and screaming along the way.
The United States, Israel and Iran aren’t the only parties to this conflict, however. The Gulf Arab states have been on the receiving end of Iranian missile and drone attacks from the moment the war started Feb. 28. Iran’s entire war strategy is prefaced on causing so much turbulence in the energy markets that Trump has no rational choice but to end the war in order to save Americans the indignity of having to shell out $150 every time they fill up their tanks. Iran has targeted the United Arab Emirates alone with 356 missiles and 1,748 attack drones; some have crashed into high-rises. In Qatar, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility at Ras Laffan has been shut down, with Qatari officials saying repairs will be in the billions of dollars. In Saudi Arabia, oil fields have been targeted, forcing the kingdom to reroute its oil to ports on the Red Sea.
For the Gulf Arab states, no good has come of this war. With the Strait of Hormuz bottled up, oil producers in the region have been forced to cut production. The net losses are in the tens of billions of dollars. In addition, the conflict is a reputational hazard for the Saudi, Emirati and Qatari governments, all of which have been promoting their countries as safe, secure and lucrative places to live, work and invest.
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