The 24 hours after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have been just as confusing as the hours that led up to it. The Iranians have insisted that President Donald Trump has capitulated to its 10-point peace proposal. The Americans have batted that assertion away and declared a full-blown military victory, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth doing his cheerleading act on the Pentagon podium and alleging that Trump’s god-like abilities wove the noose around Tehran’s next so tightly that it had no alternative but to cry uncle. Trump, meanwhile, went so far as to state that the U.S. and Iran could work something out in the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps by establishing a joint tolling system for ships using the chokepoint to get their goods to market.
But more important than what people say is what is actually happening on the ground. Despite the temporary ceasefire, the U.S. military will remain in the region, ready to strike on a moment’s notice to any Iranian breach, real or perceived. The Strait of Hormuz will likely take time to loosen up; hundreds of vessels have been stuck on either end of the waterway for weeks. Peace negotiations, meanwhile, could occur in Pakistan later in the week, although neither the U.S. or Iranian delegation has confirmed a session yet.
However, the most crucial point to remember is that we aren’t out of the woods yet. The two-week ceasefire Trump and Iran declared yesterday is just that: a two-week ceasefire. The war is merely on hold for a short period of time, not ended altogether. While the bombing halt will give the Iranian population some breathing room and is far better for them than the even more ferocious U.S. escalation Trump was talking about only 24 hours earlier, the ceasefire will be a failure if Trump and the Iranians are unable to come to mutually-acceptable agreement on ending the conflict in totality.
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