Christopher Caldwell’s concerns about further escalation in Ukraine are entirely legitimate and on point. The U.S. is funneling increasingly powerful weaponry to the Ukrainian Army and shows no sign of stopping until Kyiv achieves its war objectives. American weapons, to put it bluntly, are killing Russian soldiers.
But it’s important to note that the Biden administration has thus far been successful in treading the line between assisting Ukraine’s war effort and avoiding the kind of escalation that could draw NATO and Russia into a direct confrontation. The Russian Army has its hands full dealing with a vigilant, highly motivated Ukrainian military and is in no position to expand the war by fighting 30 NATO members simultaneously.
Yet as worn out as the Russian Army is, the U.S. and its allies in Europe should not underestimate Vladimir Putin’s commitment to succeeding in the war — or at least producing something that can be sold as a win back home. This is why rumors of some U.S. officials supporting a Ukrainian military offensive into Crimea are wholly irresponsible.
Unlike other areas of Ukraine’s east and south, Russia has effectively controlled the strategic peninsula for nearly a decade. Just as important, Crimea is integrally tied to Mr. Putin’s own legacy as a leader. Losing it is simply not an option for him — and nobody should dismiss his willingness to take extraordinary measures, including possibly dabbling with nuclear weapons, to keep it.
As difficult as it is for some to admit, the interests of the U.S. and Ukraine aren’t totally aligned. A battle over Crimea could bring those differences to the forefront.
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Events on Ukraine-Russia
