Initiatives aimed at ending the war that Russia started by invading Ukraine have been underway for months. On 24 February – a year to the day Russia started its attack – China unveiled a proposal containing 12 principles. In June, a group of African leaders met separately with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian president Vladimir Putin to present a 10-point peace plan. Most recently, this month, Saudi Arabia convened more than 40 countries, including Ukraine but not Russia, to find a way forward.
With the war approaching the 18-month mark, efforts like these are understandable. Parts of Ukraine have become rubble. Reconstruction costs are estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars. Some 11 million Ukrainians are either refugees or “internally displaced people” – about a quarter of the country’s population. More than 26,000 civilians have been killed or injured – some estimates run much higher – and military casualties may be four times greater. Anyone who has visited wartime Ukraine will attest that the enormity of devastation verges on the incomprehensible.
Peacemakers are also motivated by other considerations. The war could morph into a clash between Russia and Nato that spirals into nuclear war. The blockage of Ukrainian grain exports could cause food prices to surge, worsening hunger in the world’s poorest countries.
Though the urgency of efforts to end the war is undeniable, as of now the obstacles to success remain insuperable. Starting wars can be easy; ending them is devilishly difficult, no matter the scale of the carnage and the larger risks.
Author
More on Eurasia
Events on Ukraine-Russia
