The killing of American troops stationed in Jordan by Iranian proxies has understandably unleashed much umbrage across the U.S. There have been bipartisan calls for some sort of response, and interventionists like John Bolton have argued for strikes in Iran itself. After considering their options, the Biden administration responded with strikes on those proxies in what some experts said “could begin to send a deterrent message.” As of now, this imagined “deterrent” has failed, as insurgent attacks have not ceased.
But after 20 years, “could” simply does not cut it. Instead of attacking with counterproductive strikes which will waste money, more lives, and will not have their intended effect, the Biden administration should heavily draw down troops in the Middle East.
Critics will say this is cutting and running. But there is wisdom in adjusting our force posture to be in line with America’s actual interests. In 1983, 241 American troops were killed by terrorists who detonated bombs in their barracks in Beirut. President Ronald Reagan responded with pinprick strikes but ultimately just pulled the remaining troops out entirely. Why? Because we did not need to be there, just like we do not need to be in Tower 22, the base on the Jordan-Syria border where troops were killed recently.
But let’s, for a moment, agree with those who say we must react, or, as the interventionists always like to say, “Do something.” What should we do? The most extreme option would have been to declare war on Iran. What would be the goal of a war? Neoconservatives have long argued for Iranian regime change, dating back to the revolution in 1979. And while it is indeed an evil regime, would the outcome of war be successful regime change? We have tried this twice in recent decades. The first attempt met spectacular failure in Afghanistan and the second, Iraq, is teetering and has been totally co-opted by Iran’s government as it is. Plus, a war on Iran would create thousands of casualties among American troops and far more among their civilian population. And what then? Would we nation-build, as we failed to do in Afghanistan? Would we just blow it up and leave, hoping a group like ISIS doesn’t emerge?
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