Donald Trump tries to make history in Syria and Lebanon

It’s difficult to look at the Middle East today and be optimistic. Every U.S. president since the turn of the century has entered office promising to strike peace agreements in this region, only to leave office without succeeding. The 2020 Abraham Accords, facilitated by President Donald Trump during his first term, was less a peace agreement and more a collection of normalization accords that sought to improve Israel’s diplomatic relations with the few Arab states willing to sign on.

This year doesn’t look especially promising either. Despite the periodic attempts to inject some momentum into diplomacy, the Trump administration has effectively given up on negotiating a comprehensive ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. The nearly 2-year-old war between Israel and Hamas is set to accelerate; tens of thousands of additional Israeli troops have been called up for duty and Israeli warplanes are striking the outskirts of Gaza City in preparation for a full ground offensive in the area. Nuclear diplomacy with Iran is at a standstill as Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated over the weekend his opposition to the resumption of direct diplomacy with Washington.

It all seems bleak. But there are two countries in the Middle East where transformative change might be on the horizon: Syria and Lebanon.