Dealing With Russia and Ukraine

U.S. officials continue to debate options on how to respond to Russia’s troop buildup near the border with Ukraine. Mr. Vindman advocates for a substantial, comprehensive U.S. strategic relationship with Kyiv, including but not limited to security assistance, economic cooperation and investment.

But his strategy is likely to result in the Russian aggression he wants to prevent. The reason behind this is simple and has been telegraphed by Moscow for months, if not years: Under no circumstances will Russia countenance yet another neighbor drifting permanently into the Western orbit. The United States, therefore, needs to be judicious about how it proceeds. U.S. policy on Ukraine should start with the physician’s adage: “First, do no harm.”

If the United States truly cares about Ukraine, it would push Kyiv toward a diplomatic settlement along the lines of the 2015 Minsk II framework, which (among other items) trades the withdrawal of all Russian forces for a measure of autonomy for the Donbas region of Ukraine.

Such an accord is no doubt unpopular in Kyiv and will rub a lot of U.S. foreign policy analysts in Washington the wrong way. But it’s time for the U.S. to deal with reality: Ukraine will not win a war against Russia, and Washington should avoid actions that are bound to further escalate the situation with potentially dire results