These days, it seems like everyone has a proposal for how Ukraine can turn the tables on Russia, regain its lost territory, and win the war. The latest entry comes from none other than retired US four-star general David Petraeus, best known for his leading role in the disastrous campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Petraeus has laid out a three-part plan for Kyiv’s victory. The first two pieces of his programme—economic sanctions and security guarantees for Ukraine—have been dissected ad nauseam. His military recommendations are perhaps more novel: more drones, including long-range systems and robotic submarines. Ultimately, however, Petraeus’s solution to Ukraine’s woes will be no more effective than previous prescriptions, leaving Kyiv in an even worse position than it is now.
Petraeus is correct that drones have played a transformational role in the Russia-Ukraine war. They have supplemented and, in some cases, replaced conventional missiles and supercharged each side’s ability to surveil the other. Up to 80% of casualties in the conflict have come from first-person-view drones, and the use of these cheap systems has made massing ground forces for offensive advances challenging. This has been especially important for Ukraine, which has been able to use drones to prevent surprise attacks and somewhat mitigate its shortage of personnel.
But drones alone will not help Ukraine win the war, even if produced in much larger numbers, with greater firepower and longer range. The primary value of drones on the battlefield thus far has been defensive, not offensive. They can do little, therefore, to help Ukraine regain lost territory. Even if Kyiv’s goal is simply to prevent further Russian gains, drones will provide only marginal benefits until Ukraine finds a way to address manpower and materiel shortages.
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