The diplomatic deadlock over Iran’s nuclear program has all the ingredients of a coming escalation. The United States and Iran, historical adversaries deeply wary of one another on the best of days, are engaged in a game of chicken. Both refuse to budge from their positions and expect the other to blink.
But neither side has a better alternative to re-entering the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Because of high oil prices and China’s willingness to buy its crude, Tehran may believe that it can get by if the talks collapse. But Iran can’t bank on current market dynamics holding for a long period.
The likelihood of even stronger U.S. sanctions will complicate Iran’s ability to circumvent them—and the European Union, which previously opposed Washington’s sanctions but begrudgingly went along with them, will be active participants after blaming Iran for spoiling the diplomacy.
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