February 25, 2026
Why would Trump strike Iran? How lack of clarity imperils a diplomatic deal.
“Trump’s the guy in the casino who’s on a roll. He’s just won a bunch of money at the Venezuela craps table, and he hasn’t forgotten his Iran winnings from June,” says Rosemary Kelanic, an expert in energy security and U.S. grand strategy at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank advocating restraint in U.S. foreign policy.
“Now he’s at the table again,” she adds, “with a lot of chips and some congressional hawks and [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu whispering in his ear that Iran is weak so it’s his opportunity to go big.”
“The theory that a round of targeted strikes can lead to concessions from Iran is completely wrong,” says Dr. Kelanic. “Iran gets a vote in this, and they’ve signaled every way they can that they are going to respond hard to any attacks. If Trump opts for any attack,” she adds, “any deal is going to be off the table.”
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