Eugene Gholz, a professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame who studies national security and economic policy, described the halt of tanker traffic as a “pause” meant to offer shipping firms an opportunity to assess the risk of navigating the strait.
“Whenever the security situation changes in shipping lanes, shippers adapt to it. They think about it and make appropriate choices. That often involves pausing operations,” Gholz said….
Security measures and oil prices remain in flux, meaning shippers’ calculations about attempting passage may change. The value of the cargo, after all, far outweighs the cost of insurance, especially as oil prices continue to rise, Gholz said — a dynamic that could prove to be an enticing financial incentive for tankers.
“At some point, they’ll decide the financial incentive is high and the risk is low enough,” Gholz said.
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