The U.S. has used naval blockades against Cuba and Venezuela, but neither has had the desired effect, said Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities. Cuba has not yet had a change in leadership and the covert military capture of former Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro ultimately led to regime change as opposed to the use of U.S. warships.
While Hegseth claims time is on the U.S. military’s side, Kavanagh disagrees.
“The costs for the United States and its allies (and the global economy) are higher than they are for Iran, and Iran’s stakes are much greater,” Kavanagh said in a message. “The blockade may put pressure on Iran over time, but it plays into Iran’s hands—extending the war and allowing the regime to survive. Coercion will not end the war or reopen the strait. The only exit strategy is through political compromise.”
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