March 21, 2025
Trump’s looming war for a key trade route will be costly

“In my view, this is not an operation the United States needs to be involved in,” Jennifer Kavanagh, former RAND Corporation senior political scientist now serving as senior fellow and director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank, told Newsweek [. . .]
“The genius of the Houthis’ strategy is that their missiles do not have to hit anything or do much damage for the group to achieve its objective of disrupting shipping through the Red Sea,” Kavanagh said. “Just the threat and uncertainty of missile strikes has been enough to drive most shipping carriers away from the region—and keep them away.”
“The drones and missiles that they use are also often cheap and fairly easy to get and hide deep underground, but they are very expensive for the United States to counter,” she added. “Houthi drones, for instance, can cost as little as $2,000 but the missiles the United States uses against them cost upwards of $2 million. Even the expanded airstrikes that the Trump admin has ordered are unlikely to eliminate these cheap weapons or the Houthis’ ability to get them.” [. . .]
“The United States doesn’t really depend on trade through the Red Sea and cost increases for Americans have been small,” Kavanagh said. “I’d recommend letting countries that are more affected, especially those in Europe and the Gulf, decide how to address the problem.”
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