The lingering question of the war’s legality could further complicate the situation. “If the war is not legal, then the blockade also isn’t legal,” Jennifer Kavanagh, the director of military analysis at the think tank Defense Priorities, told me. Our allies are hesitant too. Despite Trump’s claims that other countries would be “involved,” the United Kingdom has refused to lend its support, and Spain’s defense minister said that the blockade “makes no sense.”
If the U.S. Navy does manage to stop Iranian ships from leaving the Gulf, the disruption will have a real impact on China, which buys roughly 90 percent of Iran’s exported oil (the Chinese foreign ministry has called the blockade “dangerous and irresponsible”). China has in recent years maintained close relationships with nations throughout the Gulf, and reportedly played a role in Iran’s recent decision to accept a two-week cease-fire. Chinese officials “don’t want to have a war with the United States in the Middle East,” Kavanagh said, but they also “don’t want to be seen as bowing to the United States.” How China might continue to respond over the coming days (and whether it might be more inclined to pressure Iran to reach an agreement with the U.S. and Israel) is an open question. “It’s what everyone’s watching,” Kavanagh said.
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