Indeed, given Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure has been badly degraded by U.S. and Israeli attacks, a nuclear bomb may prove “a faster route to restore deterrence for a regime that is now more radical and has been attacked twice in the midst of negotiations,” says Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis for the Washington-based think tank Defense Priorities.
It’s doubtful that the nuclear genie can be put back in the bottle. However, while more nuclear weapons clearly bring heightened risks of catastrophic miscalculation and misstep, there could be benefits. Relying on other nations for security guarantees warps national incentives by not forcing states to grapple with their own geopolitical reality, argues Kavanagh. It’s for this reason that the U.S. has long employed “strategic ambiguity” over its backing for Taiwan—chiefly to prevent hotheads in Taipei picking a fight with China in the steadfast knowledge that the U.S. would be obliged to finish it. “In my view, security guarantees actually do more harm to U.S. interests and stability than they do to help,” says Kavanagh.
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