“It is true that U.S. stockpiles are badly depleted by aid to Ukraine,” Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a think tank that advocates a “restrained foreign policy,” told us in an email. “This long-term problem will take time to address. It is not something that has been resolved and is ongoing across many types of munitions and air defense.”
However, she said it would be “misleading” to suggest that military aid to Ukraine is responsible for most of the “current munitions concerns” in Iran because of the type of weapons that have been used in the war to date.
“With the exception of Patriot interceptors, most [of] the munitions in use in the Middle East were not given to Ukraine at any point,” Kavanagh said, referring to the PATRIOT air defense systems that can shoot down incoming ballistic missiles.
“So, it is fair to link Ukraine aid to shortages in U.S. Patriot missile stockpiles, but not limited magazine depth more broadly,” Kavanagh said. “That larger problem stems from years of low production and constraints on the U.S. defense industrial base.”
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