Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said she wasn’t surprised Taiwan stayed off the formal agenda. “There were so many trade issues that were really top of mind for both sides,” she said. “Concerns about a ‘grand bargain’ over Taiwan always seemed far-fetched.”
But Kavanagh cautioned that the United States and China cannot indefinitely avoid the subject. “Things have escalated significantly in recent years, and the long-time understandings around the “One China” policy and strategic ambiguity have started to erode,” she said. “It’s important for both sides to reaffirm their commitment to peaceful means of resolving their differences.”
She added that the military balance in the region has shifted “rather quickly in China’s favor,” making U.S. deterrence less credible if tensions continue to climb. “The time to pivot to Asia has probably passed,” Kavanagh said, suggesting Washington must now focus on managing competition rather than reversing it.
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