“I don’t know if it is a signpost for restraint ascendancy in the administration or if it’s because the Saudis say, ’We’re going to buy billions in weapons,” said Gil Barndollar, a nonresident fellow at the group Defense Priorities, which advocates for a less hawkish U.S. foreign policy and has seen some personnel appointed to Trump administration jobs. “I’m happy to see us take a victory lap on that, sure, but the actual reasoning behind it may be more typical Trumpian transactionalism.”
To track whether figures in the administration who identify as pro-restraint are wielding real power, “the bigger problems are China and Russia, which are much more meaningful than anything going on in the Middle East,” said Barndollar, who is also a researcher at the Catholic University of America.
“The current Israeli government is clearly very eager to launch a military campaign against Iran,” continued Barndollar, who recently returned from a visit to Israel.
He drew a link between that possibility and the influence of the wealthy Persian Gulf kingdoms that, in recent years, have become more enthusiastic about diplomacy with Tehran. “Those people have Trump’s ear; they’re openly bribing him,” Barndollar said.
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