“No one has a crystal ball, but Israel and the U.S. are more likely to back down over Lebanon than Iran is,” said Rose Kelanic, the director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities. “Trump’s desperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran significant leverage over the terms of the ceasefire, which Iran has said must include Lebanon.”
She added that Israel’s shelling of Beirut in broad daylight, killing hundreds of civilians, will likely turn U.S. public opinion further against Israel and its war in Lebanon.
“That will increase the pressure on Trump to restrain the Israelis, lest the politically and strategically disastrous Iran war reignites,” Kelanic said.
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