Trump’s strategy of economic warfare involves isolating Iran from its trading partners, but the ultimate aim remains unclear: Does the administration seek to force economic collapse, geopolitical capitulation, or diplomatic compromise? Whatever the goal, the White House will find that increasing the pain doesn’t automatically lower Tehran’s resolve, said Rosemary Kelanic, the director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities.
“Iran will keep fighting despite the economic pain,” Kelanic said. “This is an existential conflict for them, and besides, capitulation isn’t a serious option when Trump’s demands are so erratic. No deal is ever final with him, so Iran fears that making concessions would just encourage Trump to ask for more.”
Kelanic cast doubt on how much damage economic D-Day can really do, giving it “less than a snowball’s chance in hell” of working. “The players whose economic ties with Iran matter most—China, Russia, and Pakistan, which shares a long border with Iran—have refused to cooperate in isolating Tehran,” she observed.
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