Jennifer Kavanagh, a military analyst at the national security and foreign policy think tank Defense Priorities, said the licensing arrangement might seem like a win-win for the U.S. and Ukraine but is, in fact, a “lose-lose.”
“If the solution to Ukraine’s air defense problem is that we’re going to give them licenses, it suggests that the urgency of actually getting them Patriot missiles could go down — it could end up being a net negative for Ukraine’s near-term security,” Kavanagh said.
Kavanagh said more challenges await Ukraine down the road, too. In order to produce the Patriot technology, Ukrainian facilities would have to meet U.S. security requirements. Though Kavanagh said the president can waive that review process, doing so would expose sensitive technology to Russian intelligence.
“There’s serious risks of turning over this type of technology to Ukraine, in the sense that it will be, in my view, highly likely that that means that Russia will then eventually have access to the tactical specifications of Patriot missiles, which would obviously put U.S. forces at risk,” Kavanagh said.
Featuring
More on Eurasia
Events on Ukraine
