Defense Priorities urges caution before buying into the trendline argument. In their view, geography still works against Beijing’s naval expansion plans. China is hemmed in by the First Island Chain. Furthermore, Chinese submarines and ships must pass through several smaller chokepoints, such as the Bashi Channel and the Miyako Strait, to project power beyond their immediate territory.
Once China shifts from a regional defensive force focused on the First Island Chain to an expeditionary power, the PLAN will face logistical and basing disadvantages relative to the United States. Yet the Chinese are not fully interested in projecting power beyond their near-abroad (not right away, at least). So, the Chinese submarine threat is most dangerous in the area closest to their territory, which is of concern to the United States.
Read at National Security Journal
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