“I’d say this is simply an effort at deterrence,” Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, told Defense News. “While it is hard to conceive of a scenario where they would embark on a war with the West simultaneously, they may benefit from some impression that could be the case.” [. . .]
It’s a logical choice, since China imported this type of submarine from Russia, so they have very similar capabilities and could make easy exercise partners,” said Goldstein, whose new book on the China-Russia naval alliance will be published in January [. . .]
“I think this [the sub patrol] is quite consistent with the overall pattern,” said Goldstein. “It is repetitive, consistent, quite small in scale, and often features a new dimension, whether technological or geographical.”
Goldstein floats an intriguing possibility: The sub patrol was a warning shot against AUKUS, the Australia-U.K.-U.S. agreement that calls for Australia to acquire nuclear submarines with the help of America and Britain, and U.S. subs operating out of Australian bases.
“I have seen substantial evidence that Chinese naval strategists are tracking AUKUS developments extremely closely and, moreover, that their threat anxiety about this program is acute,” Goldstein said. “I have also seen Chinese strategists discussing how enhanced China-Russia cooperation in undersea warfare is a logical counter to AUKUS.”
A key indicator of the China-Russia relationship will be that their nuclear submarines operate together.
“If they do take that major step in the future, it could indicate a tighter and more worrisome development, as that could herald more high-tech sharing on the most cutting-edge warfighting platforms,” said Goldstein.
He argues against overreacting to these joint patrols.
“Ever greater deployments of U.S. forces, and ever more intense exercising with allies, often goes beyond our intention and provokes a counter-reaction — and this can be seen in the budding China-Russia quasi-alliance.”
How deep that alliance is remains to be seen.
“Both sides are somewhat chastened by the history of the Sino-Soviet dispute,” Goldstein said. “They seem to realize that there are dangers in being too close, and also in being too dependent on one another. Now, there is a certain maturity in the relationship, wherein it is fully realized that their interests will not always be identical.”
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