As its counteroffensive fizzles, Ukraine battles itself, Russia and a shift in the world’s attention

Analysts say this latest apparent attempt to breathe life into Ukraine’s counteroffensive would only be likely to make a difference if Ukrainians manage to establish a bridgehead — a secure way across the river that could allow them to bring over armor and other support. “A Ukraine success could alter what’s now widely seen as a stalemate,” said Rajan Menon, an analyst with Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank.

The war has reached a deadlock for several reasons, Menon said, including ambivalence and a lack of urgency from Kyiv’s allies, which meant some crucial supplies arrived too late for the counteroffensive to be effective.

But a lack of appropriate air cover has been the biggest stumbling block, Menon added, with Ukraine’s air force vastly outnumbered and overpowered by Russia’s.

“You can’t do it on flat terrain without your troops being covered from the air,” he said.

“The Gaza war comes at a terrible time for Ukraine,” Menon said. “It sucked a lot of the political oxygen out of the room. There’s a competition for resources no matter how you slice it.”

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