Lyle Goldstein, the director of Defense Priorities’ Asia Program, disputed Trump’s solid footing regarding Iran but added that Chinese officials doubt they can move Trump on Taiwan policy, even if “he’s so inconsistent and prone to follow the last piece of advice that he got.”
“The Chinese know it, of course,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Hope for major movement there probably doesn’t exist in Beijing, so my guess would be that their approach is to kind of just hope for a reiteration of the [former President Joe] Biden-era formula of not supporting Taiwan independence.”
The United States has provided Taiwan defense assistance for the better part of the past 50 years, and Goldstein believes China will not “go to the mat” on pressuring Trump to halt arms sales.
Goldstein did suggest one possible exception to that rule. He told the Washington Examiner that Xi may seek “some kind of gentleman’s agreement” with Trump to exclude ATACMS and other “new missile systems” from future weapons transfers.
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