There have been so many statements about an impending peace deal with Iran, without any agreement actually materializing, that it’s hard to take seriously President Donald Trump’s claims of imminent success. But for the first time in four months, it appears we finally have a settlement—or, more accurately, a short-term placeholder to give everybody some time for a more complicated negotiation on what to do about Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump’s settlement with Tehran no doubt is a relief to everyone involved—except for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who never wanted an agreement with Iran and nearly upended the diplomatic process on a few occasions. Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf will no longer have to worry about Iranian ballistic missiles and drones slamming into their critical infrastructure or energy facilities, at least for the next 60 days. Iran, whose finances have taken a beating, will reportedly be able to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz again without seizure by U.S. Navy ships. A free and open strait will benefit Americans as well, because the more oil that enters the market, the lower the prices at the gas pump. Even Lebanon, a country that isn’t directly a part of the U.S.-Iran dispute, will see some benefits. The extension of the ceasefire also covers the current war between Israel and Hezbollah, which has uprooted more than a million people from their homes.
Yet let’s not pretend we’re out of the woods. The framework deal is the first step in what will be a long process. First comes implementation. According to public statements, the framework will be officially signed this Friday. Then, and only then, will the U.S. Navy drop its blockade in return for Iran permitting vessels to travel through the regional waterway. When the ceasefire in Lebanon will start is a mystery, although if it begins on Friday after Washington and Tehran put pen to paper on their accord, Israeli military operations against Hezbollah could get more intense as Netanyahu seeks to leverage whatever time is left on the clock to deal the Lebanese terrorist group a bigger blow.
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